The numbers backed that up, as during the 2018 season, while above-average, he ranked 82nd out of 285 qualified minor league pitchers in ground ball-rate, standing at 46.1 percent. His MLB groundball rate is 58.5%. It’s worth pointing out here that each of the seasons listed above covered more than 180 innings. The most effective way for a pitcher to prevent runs is to prevent batters from putting the ball in play. Yet, with the Twins desperately needing a victory to keep their chances in the best-of-five series off life support, manager Rocco Baldelli opted to start the kid for Game 2 in the Bronx over Jake Odorizzi, the veteran right-hander who earned his first career All-Star appearance earlier this year. In fact, that figure ranks fifth best in all of baseball, trailing only Max Scherzer, Tyler Glasnow, Jacob deGrom, and Gerrit Cole. Seven months ago, Randy Dobnak was driving for Uber, saving money in preparation for a season of unlivable wages in the High-A Florida State League.

Were Odorizzi to pitch in a potential Game 5 now, after all, he'd be working on only two days rest. Incredibly and improbably, Dobnak’s MLB numbers are essentially the same or better than as his minor league numbers across the board. Yes, but he didn’t top 50 innings or 45 days on the active roster. This rate increased in 2019 as he progressed through the high minors – 59.1% at Ft. Myers (High-A), 58.8% at Pensacola (AA), and 61.1% in Rochester (AAA). "I have one four-star. In this shortened year, that probably means just 6 or 7 more starts — and could lead to an honor even more meaningful than that 4.99 Uber rating at the end of 2020.

“The way I throw, I don’t get a lot of spin rate and carry like most guys. Per FanGraphs, Dobnak is inducing soft contact on 20.2% of all balls put in play — eighth-best in the majors among 55 qualified starters. Of 2020 pitchers that have thrown 100 or more sinkers, Dobnak has the second most downward vertical movement, averaging 33.4 inches. Altogether, that combination of outcomes works out to a FIP of 2.77.

In the 28 plate appearances that ended with a curveball, he struck out 14 batters and walked none. Though he has just 16 strikeouts in 30.1 innings, he has issued only seven walks. Twins’ pending free agents most likely to be back in 2021, The Twins may have significant roster turnover this winter, Thursday Morning Minnesota: Waiting for the off season edition. You might also have noticed above that his sinker and changeup (orange and green dots on top of one another) are extremely similar in movement. He could be pitching with their season on the line. Still seemingly light years away from the big leagues, the financial windfall that accompanies a promotion to the majors never crossed his mind. Jose Berrios #17. "I figured that was going to happen," he said, smiling. Coming out of Division II Alderson Broaddus University, Dobnak went undrafted in 2017 and opted to continue his baseball career professionally, signing with the Utica Unicorns of the United Shore Professional Baseball League.

That's simply an unfair burden to place on a rookie, even one who induces ground balls as effectively as Dobnak. Pitching in Independent Baseball two years ago, Randy Dobnak could be in the playoff rotation for the Twins. Dobnak has another peculiarity that helps make him successful and it’s one that you wouldn’t expect for a sinkerballer. The sinker alone is impressive and it also pairs well with his slider and changeup. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli thought Dobnak's demeanor would work, too. To an extent, the Statcast data backs up Dobnak’s success. In less than three years, Dobnak’s gone from being an undrafted pitcher out of Alderson Broadus University, a small DII school in West Virginia, to putting up strong numbers in the top levels of the Twins’ minor league system and … Along the way, his lore grew. Seven months ago, Randy Dobnak was driving for Uber, saving money in preparation for a season of unlivable wages in the High-A Florida State League. At that point, Baldelli went to the bullpen, entrusting Tyler Duffey with a bases-loaded, no-out situation. That downward break is what generates the groundballs – yielding an average launch angle of -7 degrees and a ground ball rate of 78.1%. While not as good as the .266 wOBA against that he put up, his xwOBA against sat at a very good mark of .288. Dobnak nonetheless got permission from Baldelli to attend his own wedding. The increase in ground balls did wonders for Dobnak’s run prevention (2.07 ERA) and shielded him from his low strikeout-rate (109 strikeouts in 135 innings).

[1] Dobnak attended Alderson Broaddus University in Philippi, West Virginia, where he played college baseball in NCAA Division II for the Battlers. Watch: Rays' Arozarena blasts 6th HR of playoffs to tie rook... Eck believes La Russa doesn't take White Sox job: 'My gut te... Jose Altuve may have the yips, but he's also raking, Nebraska senator calls Astros 'miserable cheaters'. ", 1-star start: Yanks shell Twins' ex-driver rookie, MLB Playoffs Daily: Can Braves eliminate Dodgers, plus climactic Astros-Rays Game 7, Dodgers' Taylor (ankle) out of Game 6 lineup, Astros rekindle memories of '04 Red Sox in ALCS, 'Dangerous' Seager hits 2 HRs, L.A. stays alive, Braves' Minter K's 7 in 3 innings in starting debut, Ex-Angels employee indicted in Skaggs' OD death, MLB players extend COVID-free streak to 47 days, Passan: MLB's most wonderful 2020 playoffs moment? And who knows, Dobnak might very well continue to exceed expectations. John is a contributor to Twinkie Town with an emphasis on analytics. Dobnak looked loose, too, as he hopped over the third-base line on the way to the mound. In fact, the daily press notes distributed by the Twins list other aspects of his past off-the-field résumé: Lyft driver and pizza delivery, among them. So it’s not crazy at all to think about this: Dobnak as an AL Rookie of the Year candidate. Pitching in Independent Baseball two years ago, Randy Dobnak could be in the playoff rotation for the Twins. [7] He was included on the Twins' postseason roster, and started game 2 of the ALDS against the Yankees.

Fantasy baseball writer Alex Chamberlain pointed out in a post last week on Fangraphs’ Rotographs blog that Dobnak’s combination of skills are rare. To learn more or opt-out, read our Cookie Policy. But still it’s impressive stuff! Randy Dobnak. "Nerves were fine," Dobnak said.

It’s worth pointing this out, even though it’s counterintuitive and small numbers, because it’s yet another way that Dobnak compensates for his relative lack of strikeouts.

The only sinker with more absolute downward movement belongs to Boston’s Ryan Weber at 33.9 inches, but his averages only 88.1 mph. And he’s getting ground balls on 62.4% of balls put in play — third-best among qualified starters. Odorizzi, on the other hand, does. But let’s try to be objective and see what the data tells us. The track record of the data and the profiles of his pitches make it seem likely he’ll continue to get grounders. Are you second-guessing the thought that went into a play … or the execution … or are you mad that it didn’t work in one particular instance? Dobnak made his major league debut in August and kept excelling, going 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA in nine games, including five starts. As Rocco Baldelli tells the story, when he informed Randy Dobnak that the 25-year-old right-hander would be making a spot start in Saturday’s game against the White Sox, the response was, as usual, simple and unassuming. This year he’s mixed in his breaking ball and changeup more, reducing his combined usage of fastball varieties to 52%. Will the Vikings make any moves before the NFL trade deadline? There is no sure thing at the top of the draft this year, and that adds to the notion that the Wolves might trade the top selection instead of keeping it.

The Tampa Bay Rays are a great team, but is the way they play baseball and the way their front office constructs a roster the bets for baseball? Batters can’t help but to hit the top half of the baseball and beat it into the ground. Dobnak mentioned his notice of increase in ground balls.

[6] He played for the Elizabethton Twins and the Cedar Rapids Kernels in 2017, combining to go 2–0 with a 2.43 ERA in 33 innings. To make room on the roster, the Twins optioned right-handed pitcher Randy Dobnak and infielder Travis Blankenhorn to the alternate training site.



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