All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. All minor league baseball data provided by Major League Baseball Advanced Media https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-jaffe-reverse-curse/, EV = average exit velocity, LA = average launch angle, Jon Lester’s Curve and Changeup, 2015-2018. by Handedness, 2002 June Amateur Draft - Round: 2, Pick: 16, Overall: 57, Team: Boston Red Sox, 6 yr, $155M (2015-20), 2021 vesting option. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted If he gets a little help from the home-plate ump, we could see another big performance from a big-game pitcher. As to where those strikeouts and ground balls have gone, it starts with his dip in velocity (91.5 mph average for his four-seamer, just 0.2 mph below last year but 1.6 mph below 2016), fewer swings and misses overall (9.0%, down from 10.9% last year), and a changing pitch mix: Lester’s four-seam fastball and cutter rates (47% and 22%, respectively) are about where they were in 2016, when he posted a 2.41 ERA, 3.40 FIP and finished second in the NL Cy Young voting while helping the Cubs to their long-awaited championship. I love Jon Lester, but he’s one of the most comically inept pitchers out there at fielding his position. But wait!

Admins may or may not choose to remove the comment or block the author. He’s altered his pitch selection some in 2012. Website admin will know that you reported it. This is, in part, due to a change in his pitch selection, which has impacted his strikeouts: Odd chart to read, but yes – he’s throwing the four seam fastball more, producing fewer swings and misses, the curve a little more producing zero whiffs, the slider much more producing zero whiffs, and the cutter less, which is perhaps the only reliable out pitch versus left handed batters he has thus far. His 0.9 WAR ranks just 26th in the NL, somehow behind the WARs of the likes of the Marlins’ Jose Urena (2-9, 4.40 ERA, 1.4 WAR), the Phillies’ Vince Velasquez (5-8, 4.69 ERA, 1.4 WAR), and the Mets’ Zack Wheeler (2-6, 4.85 ERA, 1.2 WAR), none of whom are likely to make the NL All-Star team, let alone get consideration for the start. 9-2 doesn’t reflect much on Lester, but (with error bars, of course) it reflects upon the team as a whole when Lester is pitching. Great article. He’s never done it with the changeup — though, again, he’s gotten his full-season xwOBA below .200 with the pitch. Indeed, Lester has surrendered a mere two runs and 13 hits in his last four starts (27 innings), both via solo homers by Cardinals in a June 15 game that the Cubs won, 13-5. His 5 wRC+ with the pitch is a Wile E. Coyote fall from last year’s 107 and is well below his career mark of 72 as well. Note the gap between ERA and FIP for what is essentially the first half of the season and then the poor numbers in both statistics for much of the second half.

Avg Salary All Leagues $3.31 Last 10 adds $1.70 FanGraphs Points $2.54 Last 10 adds $2.10 Rolling 30-day Averages. FanGraphs Membership. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Gift a Membership. Owners across the fantasy landscape collectively breathed a sigh of relief. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Look at some of his other stats from the regular season and playoffs over the course of his career. Reported as the pre-2020 season number of waiver options remaining. On a per plate appearance basis, his 19.3% K rate is his lowest since 2012, and his drop from last year’s 23.6% is even more stark considering that NL starters as a group have climbed from 20.7% to 22.0%; that’s a swing of 5.6 percentage points relative to the league. Before September, Lester took 22.4 seconds between each pitch, but that figure has increased to 24.6 seconds in September. Roster% 39.67% That, unfortunately, isn’t great news for the Cubs tonight, as Lester has just authored the worst full season of his major-league career. It’s asking too much for him to sustain his differentials, however, particularly when his average exit velocities are so much higher than they were in 2016. Lester’s sterling ERA owes a great deal to the Cubs’ defense, which leads the NL in Defensive Efficiency (.716). All minor league baseball data provided by Major League Baseball Advanced Media and play-by-play data provided by Baseball Info Solutions. Thanks! Meanwhile, although batters aren’t swinging and missing against his curve as often, particularly outside the zone, they’ve hit just .139/.184/.194 in the 38 PA that have ended with a hook, striking out 13 times and walking none (he hit two). Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Admins may or may not choose to remove the comment or block the author. Now, the “N” here is small, so I’m getting awfully granular and I’m not suggesting that this is damning evidence that he’s not going to improve versus left handers going forward — but if you’re scratching your head wondering where all the strikeouts have gone, you can point to the repertoire first, and second, to his pitch selection in strikeout counts.

by Handedness, 2002 June Amateur Draft - Round: 2, Pick: 16, Overall: 57, Team: Boston Red Sox, 6 yr, $155M (2015-20), 2021 vesting option.

You can find him on twitter at @michaelcbarr. In the 2018 regular season, Lester conceded a .290 BABIP. That’s a bit better than major-league average. Updated: Saturday, October 17, 2020 7:17 AM ET, Park Factors

This capped a much needed bounce-back season for Lester.

and play-by-play data provided by Baseball Info Solutions. Owners across the fantasy landscape collectively breathed a sigh of relief. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. The data seem to support this point. At the time of this writing, Jon Lester just finished a strong playoff start that should mark the end of his 2013 season. Depending upon the schedules of Max Scherzer (10-3, 2.09 ERA) and Jacob deGrom (5-3, 1.69 ERA) as well as the preferences of their respective teams, it’s not completely farfetched that NL All-Star manager Dave Roberts could give Lester (who’s a gaudy 9-2 to go with that ERA) the start on July 17 at Nationals Park, though you can imagine the pressure will be on the Nationals to make Scherzer available, health permitting. RotoWire News: Lester said he wants to play with the Cubs in 2020 and 2021, and ultimately finish his career in Chicago, Tim Stebbins of NBC Sports Chicago reports. Check out our.

The numbers for Lester are pretty much the same across the board in the regular season and playoffs. by Retrosheet. His 1.0 homers per nine, though solidly above his career mark (0.86 per nine) isn’t of much concern in a league where starters are serving up 1.18 per nine. Pitchers tend to lose velocity over the course of their careers, and Lester is not immune to that trend, either. There’s some indication, in other words, that Lester was a bit more careful when difficult situations presented themselves. and play-by-play data provided by Baseball Info Solutions. Despite those superficially glossy stats, Lester is nowhere near the top of the NL pitching WAR leaderboard. Jon Lester CHC SP L Born: 01/07/1984 (Age: 36) FanGraphs Player Page. His changeup has been similarly stifling, as batters have hit .145/.175/.182 in the 57 PA that have ended with the pitch, striking out 11 times, walking twice and — as is also the case with the curve — failing to homer. All minor league baseball data provided by Major League Baseball Advanced Media



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